Category: Israel Economy: Data Watch

Bottom line: The current account for 2013 posted a surplus of $7.2bn, far more than in 2012 or 2011 ($0.8bn and $3.3bn respectively) and equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. Given the arrival of offshore energy (from March 2013), this suggests that large current account surpluses will henceforth be the norm for the Israeli economy.

Bottom line: The latest GDP data are very confusing and should be handled with care. This is the first time we have seen fourth quarter (Q4) data on their own, and they present a very different picture to the second half (H2) data that the CBS press release (and hence the media reports) focused on. Our starting point is our […]

Bottom line: Don’t get carried away. The seemingly sharp drop in the January CPI, of 0.6% and which caused a stir among some economists, is not more than an exaggerated seasonal phenomenon. The index usually drops in January; this year it dropped by more than usual, but mostly because of transient distortions caused by the weather (see below for some […]

Bottom line: The Treasury hit a home run in January, getting its budget performance in 2014 off to a very strong start. The key features were strong revenues, even after accounting for one-off items and the impact of tax rises enacted last year, as well as continued restraint in spending. Obviously, the question is whether these trends will be maintained […]

  Bottom line: Overall, foreign currency reserves increased by $1.4bn in January – the most in a single month since August, but not much more than December’s $1.2bn. This cumulative $2.6bn rise, most of it from intervention by the Bank of Israel, did not stop the shekel from rising against almost all currencies in December and January, but it may […]

Bottom line: The 0.1% rise in the CPI for December was – for a change – in line with forecasters’ consensus prediction and brings the annual rise in the Index to 1.8% for 2013, compared with 1.6% in 2012. These are very benign levels and confirm the absence of any inflationary pressures in the Israeli economy. Housing prices continue to […]