GDP DATA: INITIAL ESTIMATES FOR NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER KEY ECONOMIC DATA FOR FULL-YEAR 2017

January 1, 2018
Bottom line: Chugging along nicely. No big surprises, good or bad, in the early estimate for full-year data that the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) traditionally publishes on December 31. The growth was entirely domestically-generated, while import growth exceeded export growth, shrinking the surplus on current account.

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Trade data for July and January-July 2017

August 15, 2017
Bottom line: The July trade data suggest grounds for concern, which may be specific to the pharma sector or perhaps be wider. Whether measured by ‘original data’ or seasonally adjusted data, goods trade in July generated the largest monthly deficit of the year to date. On the other hand, the cumulative data for January-July present a much more stable picture. Developments in the next few months should be watched carefully.

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Trade data for January-March 2017

30-04-17 Bottom line: The overall trade data for January-March paint a picture of relative stability — but this is misleading. First, March saw a significant improvement, after the deficit widened sharply in January-February. Second, imports would have fallen had it not been for a massive increase in fuel imports. Third — and perhaps most important — high-tech exports are rising […]

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